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2008年考研英語閱讀理解沖刺重點預測二
War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.
Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans—and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.
Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.
BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things “their” company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these “preference trees” were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.
Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.
The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason—although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,” as Sun Tzu would say.
注（1）：本文選自Economist, 05/31/2007
注（2）：本文習題命題模仿對象：第1題模仿2002年真題Text 2第2題和Text 5第3題，第3題模仿1995年真題Text 2第4題，第4題模仿2000年真題Text 4第3題，第5題模仿1998年真題Text 2第4題。
1． The expression “abound in” (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.
[A] be limited
[B] be appreciated
[C] be driven
[D] be plentiful
2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.
[A] has been completely abandoned.
[B] fails to consider rivals’ reactions.
[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
[D] functions well for the development of most companies.
3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
[A] the role playing of competitors
[B] the composition of several turns
[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
[D] the rising popularity of the game
4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
[C] “Preference trees” refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
[D] War game’s predictive ability is not convincing
5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?
[A] feedback
[B] mathematics
[C] interaction
[D] consideration of enemy
篇章剖析
本文是一篇說明文，圍繞實戰(zhàn)演習的商業(yè)用途及其價值這個話題進行了分析。第一段先簡單介紹了什么是實戰(zhàn)演習，第二段則立刻引入話題，指出公司制定戰(zhàn)略的傳統(tǒng)方式存在的缺點，從而提出本文的主要觀點，即公司實戰(zhàn)演習能夠幫助更好地理解自身與競爭對手的狀況。第三段介紹了實戰(zhàn)演習的兩個特點；第四、五段介紹了兩家提供實戰(zhàn)演習服務的咨詢公司策劃的實戰(zhàn)演習內容及其效果。最后一段對文章進行了總結，進一步指出了實戰(zhàn)演習的重要價值所在。
詞匯注釋
scenario [si`nB:ri[u] n. 情景；場面 quantitative [`kwRntitEtiv] adj.數(shù)量的, 定量的
prompt [prRmpt] v. 激勵；刺激 identify [`aifdentifai] vt. 識別, 鑒別
analogy [[`nAlEgi] n. 類似, 類推 pump [pQmp] v. ]把灌注; 傾注
abound [[`baund] vi. 多, 富于, 充滿 proprietary [prR`praiEtEri] adj. 所有的
stimulate [`stimjuleit] v. 刺激, 激勵 astonish [`EstRniF] v. 驚奇，驚訝
multiple [`mQltipl] adj. 多樣的, 多重的 trade-off n. 交換, 協(xié)定, 交易
consultancy [kEn`sQltnsi] n. 咨詢; 顧問公司 algebra [`AldVibrE] n. 代數(shù)學
revenue [`revinju:] n. 收入 stifle [`staifl] vt. 使窒息, 抑制
難句突破
Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months.
主體句式 Mr McDermott says…
結構分析 這個句子乍一看非常長，但是其結構卻相當清楚。主要結構為Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing，后面冒號的作用是舉例進一步說明前面提到的結論。冒號后面句子的主體句式為one forecast came true within six months，而that 引導的這個句子是one forecast的具體內容，是一個同位語從句。
句子譯文 麥克德莫特先生說這種演習的預測能力是驚人的：其中的一個預測是，一家公司將開始在該產(chǎn)業(yè)內得到一組資產(chǎn)，而這在六個月之后竟然真的實現(xiàn)了。
題目分析
1．D. 語義題。根據(jù)上下文，討論了實戰(zhàn)演習是否能夠用于商界，并談到許多老板都在向中國古代的著名軍事家孫武學習管理技巧。顯然，商業(yè)人士已經(jīng)在運用很多軍事上的理論。四個選項中，只有D最符合文意。
2．B. 細節(jié)題。文章第二段中，正如辦公用品公司施樂公司的首席戰(zhàn)略官約翰·麥克德莫特指出，“傳統(tǒng)的計劃方式很少把競爭者的反應考慮在內”，顯然答案是B。
3．D. 細節(jié)題。從第三段和第四段中，我們可以找到實戰(zhàn)演習之所以能夠產(chǎn)生積極效果，是因為這種演習擁有兩個重要的特點，同時還加入了“quantitative element”。而D選項并不是實戰(zhàn)演習積極效果的原因，而是結果。
4．C. 細節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第三段第六行，各個團隊列出所扮演公司“希望達到的一系列成果”，后面緊跟著的“preference tree”即為上文“desired outcomes”的同義詞。
5．A. 細節(jié)題。文章最后一段總結說明了實戰(zhàn)演習模式之所以能夠成功的原因，列舉了三點，分別屬于B、C、D，而A選項與題
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