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城市生態(tài)需水量變化的驅(qū)動機制研究-以深圳市寶安區(qū)為例
摘要： 人類活動的強烈干預使城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生急劇變化,導致土地利用方式改變,城市生態(tài)需水量也隨之顯著改變.以深圳市寶安區(qū)為例,定量分析城市生態(tài)需水量與土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)的相互作用關(guān)系,并利用偏最小二乘回歸法對土地利用和城市生態(tài)需水量的變化進行了人文驅(qū)動機制分析.結(jié)果表明,城市生態(tài)需水量與土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)特征指標SI具有顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系.所選驅(qū)動因素總體對于土地利用變化的解釋率為50%～90%,特別是對城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)用地和SI指標的解釋率高達90%以上;對各類生態(tài)需水量變化的解釋率為60%～80%.各驅(qū)動因子對土地利用和生態(tài)需水量變化的影響程度有所不同,其中總?cè)丝诘挠绊懽畲?由于城市生態(tài)需水量與土地利用變化具有類似的人文驅(qū)動機制,利用簡化的SI指標可以方便地解釋和預測城市生態(tài)需水量的變化. Abstract： The interruption of human with the urban ecosystems will change the land use structure dramatically and result in deterioration of environmental quality as well as the remarkable change of ecological water requirements. Based on the case study of Bao'an, Shenzhen, this paper presents the quantitative relationship between urban ecological water requirements (UEWR) and the characteristic index for land use structure (SI). The driving mechanism of human activities to the land use change and UEWR is studied by Partial Least Squares Regression model. The estimation results indicate the significant negative correlation between UEWR and SI. The human driving forces can explain 50%～90% of the deviation of the land use, especially more than 90% of the urban construction area and SI. The explanation ability of the same driving forces to the ecological water requirements are 60%～80%. The coefficients of the regression model represent the weight of the driving forces, among which the population is of the most important contribution. Through the same human driving mechanism, the UEWR can be explained and predicted by the simple index of SI. 作 者： 毛小苓 田坤 李靜萍 李天宏 劉永偉 MAO Xiaoling TIAN Kun LI Jingping LI Tianhong LIU Yongwei 作者單位： 毛小苓,田坤,李天宏,劉永偉,MAO Xiaoling,TIAN Kun,LI Tianhong,LIU Yongwei(北京大學環(huán)境工程系,水沙科學教育部重點實驗室,北京,100871)李靜萍,LI Jingping(中國人民大學統(tǒng)計學院,北京,100872)
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